The terrorism landscape is becoming more complex and interconnected, shaped by the convergence of ideological threats, hostile state activity, and rapid technological change.
As we look toward 2026, the challenge is not only understanding how terrorism is evolving, but how counter-terrorism must adapt in response - across policy, preparedness, and public spaces.
In this edition of our *Security Outlook 2026* series, Catherine Ling, Head of NaCTSOs Policy and Guidance Dept. explores how terrorism and counter-terrorism are shifting in parallel, what risks are still misunderstood, and what effective readiness looks like as resilience, preparedness, and public awareness take on renewed importance.

Fb “When you look ahead to 2026, what do you see as the most significant shift in the terrorism and counter-terrorism landscape compared with recent years?”

CL “Personally, I believe 2026 will bring similar challenges in the CT landscape as 2025, with some complexities evolving. The UK faces an interconnected threat landscape where traditional terrorism converges with hostile state activity. A primary shift is the rise of state sponsored sabotage, with 20% of counter-terrorism casework now focussed on missions outside of terrorism. This is a five-fold increase since 2018 and the Salisbury Attacks. Hostile state actors are weaponising disposable criminal proxies to conduct attacks, for example the case of an arson attack in Leyton, London, where a logistics warehouse was targeted.

The complexity is heightened by the potential of AI driven misinformation and the exploitation of online platforms to continue to radicalise.

Can we believe anything we see online anymore?

As the lines blur between geopolitics, espionage and terrorism siloed defences are not sufficient. Success in 2026 requires collaboration and cross cutting functions to strategically align. Resilience in 2026 will be measured by our collective ability to bridge gaps before our adversaries exploit them.”

FB “What aspect of the current terrorism threat do you think is most commonly misunderstood outside specialist circles? ”

CL “A dangerous misconception is that the threat is confined to iconic landmarks or major well-known cities. In reality, the landscape is decentralised, the threat is very real, at any place and at any time. The Director General of MI5 stated in his annual threat speech that the UK is facing its most complex and interconnected threat environment ever.

To counter this we must not underestimate the importance of ACT (Action Counters Terrorism). The National Counter Terrorism Security Office (NaCTSO), part of Counter Terrorism Policing, provides free, award winning ACT Awareness e-learning to build security awareness across all sectors. From specialist modules for frontline security

operatives to tailored content for educational settings and a range of digital terrorism exercises for all businesses, these tools ensure preparedness is a foundational skill.

You can access free awareness products here; E-Learning | Protect UK

This year NaCTSO will be launching a new and improved course covering key areas of counter terrorism awareness for businesses and the public.

A series of 10-minute, optional bolt-on modules will also be produced for users seeking to expand their counter terrorism awareness through bite-size, flexible learning opportunities. Topics will include Postal Threats, Personal Security, Current Threat and more.

I also want to touch briefly on individuals with extreme violent ideology who are using methodologies seen within terrorist attacks. These attacks were not declared terrorism because they do not meet the threshold set out in s1 Terrorism At 2000.”

FB “How do you see the balance evolving between prevention, protection, and preparedness as counter-terrorism adapts to emerging risks? ”

CL “Rather than questioning the balance of the UK’s CONTEST strategy – Prevent, Pursue, Protect and Prepare, it may be more helpful to focus on a new energy towards protection and preparedness. The landscape demands a robust defence and ability to recover should the worst happen, but all 4 Ps have a critical part to play in defeating terrorism.

Martyn’s Law received Royal assent in April 2025. We owe this legacy to Figen Murray’s tireless campaign following the loss of her son, Martyn Hett. This legislation transitions security to a legal reality. We know both the Home Office and the SIA are working to produce their guidance and to stand up the regulatory functions that will improve protective security and preparedness at qualifying premises and events.

As an organisation, preparedness is a critical part of your organisations security culture. Do you have a major incident plan? Have you reviewed your plans in line with the current threat picture, relevant to your organisation? Do you know where to go for specialist advice and guidance? And do you test and exercise these plans, or are they sat on a shelf collecting dust?

Ensuring staff complete the ACT and SCaN products is a fundamental step in your resilience.

Put your organisation in a strong and justified position should the worst happen.

On Protect UK you can find the Risk Management Approach which utilises a threat based methodology to ensure proportionality and introduce controls that modify the risk you face to an acceptable level for your organisation. The Risk Management Process (RMP) has been tailored specifically to manage terrorist risk. It is adapted from the general risk management process found in a number of standards, including ISO/IEC 31000 and ISO/IEC 27005. The approach consists of five key stages that capture the following core activities:

Stage 1: Identify the risks
Stage 2: Assess the risks
Stage 3: Treat the risks
Stage 4: Record your actions
Stage 5: Review

The above activities are supported by the ProtectUK risk assessment templates to further support you and your organisation. ”

FB “Where should local authorities, or public-facing sectors go for counter-terrorism readiness? ”

CL “Within my Policy and Guidance Department in NaCTSO I am extremely proud of my Venues and Public Spaces Team to have launched a new product – ACT for Local Authorities. This is in line with our new delivery approach under the Venues and Public Spaces strategy – a shift from the old 'Crowded Places Model' which was designed for the methodology of the IRA and Al-Qaeda when iconic sites were more likely targets. This sees the Counter Terrorism Security Advisors working much more closely with local authorities to achieve better outcomes for CT Preparedness and Protective Security across five business areas:

o Planning and Development

o Transport and Highways

o Emergency Planning

o Community Safety

o Licensing

It is not always possible to predict where in the UK an attack might happen, or the type of premises or events that could be impacted. The threat has increasingly shifted to public spaces like high streets, markets, and areas immediately outside busy venues. These spaces are typically public land, under local authority ownership, operation or influence.

The Local Approach is not about adding burdens on local authorities but about Counter Terrorism Policing delivering a supportive, consistent service. This ensures local authorities have access to specialist counter terrorism information, guidance, advice, and subject matter experts, enabling them to holistically identify and mitigate terrorist risks across their areas.

Local authorities can access the resources – including toolkits and videos for each of the five priority areas – at ProtectUK ACT for Local Authorities to support their consideration and understanding of terrorist risks, protective security and preparedness. ”

FB “What role do policy, guidance, and standards play in shaping effective counter-terrorism outcomes, and where do they add the greatest value in bridging strategy and practice? ”

CL “In 2026 security landscape, policy, guidance and standards act as the vital connectivity between high level strategy and operational reality. For these to be effective, leadership must be visible and inquisitive; in policing I have found that the strongest ties are built by listening to the perceived reality on those on the ground. Looking outside of policing to work with business and industry is often the backbone of successful initiatives.

Policy should not be a rigid directive but a supportive mechanism that enables people to make smart, timely decisions.

We need to challenge our own practices and question our assumptions to ensure guidance remains reflective of the real world.

As Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 legislation is about to strengthen UK resilience, standards will continue to rise, with assurance and compliance under a new regulatory body within the SIA.

This is all a positive shift that finally places security at the top of the corporate agenda as a fundamental priority.”

FB “Is there anything about the terrorism and counter-terrorism outlook for 2026 that you think is important for people to understand? ”

CL “I think that there is a real opportunity here in 2026 on the back of the Martyn’s Law legislation for all businesses, including those who may not be in-scope to consider counter-terrorism preparedness as something they can adopt as part of their sensible business practice. Thankfully, the number of businesses having to manage a fire at their workplace are low, but almost everyone will know how to react to a fire alarm – or will have completed ‘first-aid’ at work training. If we can achieve a similar level of awareness and preparedness for terrorism, we will all be safer in 2026 and beyond.

It is also important we continue to drive innovation and new talent within this fansastic industry, which will help us to mitigare the evolving and complex threat. By bringing in diverse workforces, encouraging more women into security and giving youth a career pathway, we can shape the future of protective security.

Check out www.counterterrorism.police.uk for careers.

Security Trends 2026: Terrorism